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Is South Caucasus Geopolitics Being Rewritten? A New Balance Emerges

1. A Diplomatic Turning Point: The Washington Peace Agreement

The peace agreement signed in Washington between Azerbaijan and Armenia represents a pivotal moment toward resolving longstanding conflicts in the South Caucasus. However, its significance extends well beyond bilateral relations, holding deep geopolitical implications for the entire region. İndependent Türkçe

2. Russia's Decline and America's Strategic Gain

Russia’s military and diplomatic capacities have been severely depleted due to the war in Ukraine, creating a vacuum in its historical influence over the South Caucasus. The United States has stepped into this void—not merely as mediator but by establishing a permanent logistic, political, and security presence. This strategy positions Washington to secure control over key Eurasian energy and transport corridors, counter China’s Belt and Road ambitions, and strengthen its reach into Central Asia. İndependent TürkçeKafkassam

3. Azerbaijan’s Expanding Foreign Policy Horizons

Over the last decade, Azerbaijan has strategically diversified its foreign relations—reducing its reliance on Moscow. Its alliances span from Turkey, Pakistan, and Israel in military cooperation to economic ties with China and strengthened connections with Gulf countries. A notable strategic move was the premature withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno‑Karabakh in 2024, following a serious aircraft incident with Russian air defense forces. İndependent Türkçe

4. Armenia’s Western Tilt Amid Internal Constraints

Following its losses in the Nagorno‑Karabakh conflict, Armenia has shifted toward Western alignment—enhancing defense ties with France, procuring arms from India, obtaining border security assistance from the EU, and initiating normalization with Turkey. Despite these steps, Moscow still maintains significant economic and security influence over Yerevan. İndependent Türkçe

5. The Zengezur Corridor Dilemma & American Proposal

The Zengezur Corridor stands at the heart of geopolitical debate—Azerbaijan insists on controlling the corridor, while Armenia stresses sovereignty and territorial integrity. The U.S. has proposed a unique solution: leasing the corridor to an American company for 100 years. This plan aims to offer security assurances to Azerbaijan, sovereignty guarantees to Armenia, and a strategic foothold for the U.S. in the region. İndependent Türkçe

6. Turkey’s Strategic Leveraging and Diplomatic Position

Turkey, though not a direct signatory, has substantial stakes in the region through its “one nation, two states” alliance with Azerbaijan, and its economic normalization initiatives with Armenia. The operation of the Zengezur Corridor would elevate Turkey’s role in energy and logistics, potentially establishing it as a regional hub—if Ankara engages diplomatically with precision and balance. İndependent Türkçe

7. Iran and Russia: Waning Influence, Growing Concerns

Iran opposes the opening of the Zengezur Corridor, fearing the erosion of its regional influence and a boost for the Turkey‑Azerbaijan axis. While vocally critical, its responses are limited to diplomatic warnings and minor economic pressure. Russia, for its part, lacks the capacity to counteract effectively. The country maintains its grip over Armenia through economic leverage and rhetoric, but its overall influence is diminishing—marking a structural shift in the South Caucasus geopolitical landscape. İndependent TürkçeKafkassam

Conclusion: A New Geopolitical Architecture Emerges

The United States has not only gained diplomatic prestige through its mediation but has built pathways for long-term strategic presence in the region. Azerbaijan is increasing its autonomy as a regional actor; Armenia is reducing its dependency on Russia through Western engagement. Turkey stands poised to expand its influence via emerging logistics and energy opportunities, while Iran and Russia find themselves increasingly on the defensive. The geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus is being fundamentally reshaped—and the evolution of these dynamics will remain crucial in the years ahead. İndependent TürkçeKafkassam


 
 
 

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